Strategic Threats to Middle East Security: Challenges for U.S. Policy

Research Summary

q       This report is a brief of the publication of RAND bearing the title ‘The Future Security Environment in the Middle East: Conflict, Stability, and Political Change’.

q       Before the September 11 attack, the US had vital interest in the security and stability of the Middle East including countering terrorism, curbing weapons of mass destruction, maintaining oil supply and prices, ensuring the security of friendly regimes and Israel, and promoting democracy and human rights.

q       The brief notes that though there were several military aggressions in the region posing danger to Middle east security, these threats are likely to subside giving way to new threats by challenging political, economic and social trends.

q       The brief highlights that the declining economies and the slow pace of democratic reform will increase popular frustration with autocratic regimes.

q       The changes in the region demand more use of military for managing internal unrest that will invariably put the states in a difficult position to defend their hostile neighbors.

q       The political changes in the region are bringing in new leaders who are less likely to cooperate with the US war on terrorism and unpopular policies like supporting Arab concession to Israel.

q       With the U.S. turning to Russia for energy supplies, Asia is likely to become the primary consumer of Gulf oil giving way to strengthening the Middle-Eastern-Asian ties, leading to WMD technology transfer from China and North Korea to Middle Eastern States.

q       The spread of communication technology is likely to presuppose two results, either facilitating popular discussion thereby compelling regimes to respond to popular opinions or cause the government to become more authoritarian.

q       Since several regimes in the region are continuously seeking nuclear weapons and advanced delivery systems, this could become a threat to U.S. homeland and could limit the U.S. military freedom of action in certain parts of the world.

q       The brief stresses that in order to maintain political security in the Middle East, the United States must balance the aim of fostering democratic change in the region, besides reaching out the ordinary citizens in the region with the rationale behind the U.S. policies.

Read the full report

Back to Islamic / Arab Research Reports