The Persian Gulf in the Coming Decade

Research Summary

q       This report examines the possible challenges to U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf region, particularly with respect to the conventional military strength of Iran and Iraq, the potential for subversion, and the social and economic weaknesses of all the regional states.

q       The central feature of the report lies in identifying key uncertainties and trends that may shape the region’s future, in addition to assessing their implication for the United States, particularly the U.S. military.

q       Observing that the military balance in the gulf is turning favorable to the interests of the US and its partners, the report comments that it is becoming rather difficult for Iraq to exert its military operations in the region.

q       Analyzing the state of Iran after the Iran-Iraq war, the report observes that the country has not been able to fully recover till this day from the impact and damages caused by the war. Besides this, considering other factors like geography, it is rather difficult for Iran to rope in its military operations in the region.

q       The report elaborates on the military capabilities of other Gulf States and notes that invariably most of these states depend on the United States for any sort of military operation in the region.

q       The authors note that though the external threats to US interests are limited, a range of social and economic pressures faced by many of the US partners in the region are likely to intensify, putting them on a more difficult position to serve US interests.

q       Taking the issue forward, the report discusses a list of hard-to-predict factors that will shape the Gulf in addition to a number of factors that may cause instability in the region.

q       A significant observation notes that since other super powers are also involved in supporting and determining the capabilities of Gulf, the US-Europe and US-Russian relationships have a decisive hand in determining the nature of problems in Gulf.

q       The report also analyses the possible effects of oil prices over a range of issues in the region in addition to affecting US interests.

q       The report successfully drives home that, to meet the challenges of the changing scenario, a strategic shift is called for in the UASF and US military planners. It is equally essential to understand a range of less traditional concerns and factors that exist outside the region in affecting the US interests.

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