Carnegie-RAND Workshop on the Future of the Greater Middle East and the Prospects for U.S.-Russian Partnership

Research Summary

q       The paper summarizes the proceedings of the workshop jointly conducted in 2003 by the RAND Center for Russia and Eurasia (CRE), the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP), and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Moscow Center.

q       The principal interest of the workshop was the traditional “Middle Eastern” issues that are becoming increasingly important for Russian, U.S., and, indeed, global security interests.

q       Analyzing the region in depth, the report presents the security policy of each of these countries, their effectiveness, the stacking up of the policies against national issues, and the independent and collective moves required on part of the U.S. and Russia in this region.

q       Washington’s top priorities for the region are the war on terrorism, peacemaking and state-building in Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, stability in Afghanistan, energy security, shifting notion of Gulf stability, alliances and friendships, and destruction of WMD.

q       The events following the September 11, 2001 attack, demonstrated that the United States will need the support and assistance of other states—both within and beyond the region—to implement its goals in the Middle East, especially that of Russia, China and others.

q       The paper analyses the change in U.S. policy towards terrorism and Middle East with changes of events and leadership in the U.S. and the Middle East in addition to discussing about the long term and short term goals to be achieved in the region.

q       Russia does not seem to have a clear-cut policy toward either the greater or the lesser “traditional” Middle East, although economic and security interests might appear to give a rough shape to its policy agenda.

q       In terms of security, Russia is equally uneasy about Islamic extremism and international terrorism like the United States. More so, with respect to Russia, the proximity of these problems to Russia’s borders plays a crucial role in determining its policy.

q       Even as s strong anti-American strain continues to appear among government, popular, and some elite circles within Russia, other elites are far more positive toward the United States and these is always a possibility for U.S. Russian cooperation with respect to the U.S. Middle East policies.

q       Discussing the security issues with respect to each of the Middle East countries in detail, the report observes that though there are limitations to what the two countries can together accomplish in the region, it is essential to establish a common platform on which they can act together towards a common good.

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