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    Shiites, Sunnis, "The Others" and their Agendas

Matters have continued to worsen in Iraq for the past few years. What is important to understand about this turmoil is that what may seem like a country specific conflict is slowly spreading regionally and has the potential to spread globally. Everyone regardless of their geographical location could be impacted as a result of this mayhem directly or indirectly. This article summarizes three basic questions about this conflict – What are the current facts? What is at risk and what could be done to contain the situation?

Many groups exist within the Shias and Sunnis. The first Shia (Shiite) group includes parties blessed by Ayatollah al-Sistani, while the other is the one led by Al-Sadr. On the Sunni side, one group (the insurgency) includes Iraqis as well as the foreign fighters. The other Sunni group on the other hand has shown some willingness to participate in the political process and has been cooperating with the US and it’s allies. Most of the Kurds fall into that group.

The Current Facts in Iraq
 

The situation in Iraq is very worrisome. It’s worrisome for all concerned parties – The soldiers in the middle of the battlefield, for the masses of Iraq, for Muslims all over the world, and for the region in general. All should be worried. If anyone is getting used to the situation by hearing the same news daily, then the fact that the situation in Iraq could have a potential global impact should be a wakeup call for everyone. Here are the critical facts:

  • Multi-party Battleground – Iraq started out as a battlefield for the American led allied forces and Saddam Hussein’s Baath party loyalists. Later, it transformed into a battlefield for the Sunni insurgents and the American led forces. Now, a few months later, the battlefield has become a many-to-many fighting gala. Hostilities exist between different Sunni and Shiite groups and fighting rages on at different levels. The Americans and Sunni insurgency are fighting daily battles and now Sunni and Shiite groups from the general population have started to engage each other as well. Many incidents have led to this. Shiites in general have started to believe that Sunni’s are after killing all Shiites. Sunnis on the other hand do not trust the Iraqi police that are largely made up of Shiites. Recently, these hostilities have even been further fueled after allegations of rape by Shiite led Iraqi forces against Sunni women. All groups are fighting and chasing away the other from towns, cities and villages across the country.

 

  • The Sunni apprehension: The Middle Eastern media is replete with assertions and conspiracy theories regarding the Shiite movement to spread Shiism across all Muslim nations. One of the Jordanian newspapers wrote about the Shiite conspirators' agenda to “assassinate key Sunni leaders." Iran is being blamed by some to spearhead the agenda of reviving the Persian Safavid dynasty, which came to power in the 16th century.

True or not, the fact that the Sunni street in the Middle East has started to buy into the alleged Shiite (Shia) agenda, poses a grave danger. The emergence of the first Arab Shiite leadership in recent times is making more people convinced about this agenda. The situation in Iraq poses a great danger in fueling Shiite (Shia) Sunni tensions even in countries that to date seem to be safe from this turmoil. With Sunnis believing that Shiites are out to convert all Sunnis to Shiaism and raping their women, while Shiites believing that Sunnis are out to kill all Shiites is setting the stage for the emergence of worldwide hatred between the Shiites and Sunnis – something that every Muslim should fear and take very seriously.

  • Conflicting regional agendas: – Various regional Iraqi neighbors have their own conflicting agendas. Iran for example wants to see a Shia controlled government. On the other hand, other Sunni Gulf States would rather have a Sunni controlled government in Iraq. The regional powers’ agendas therefore will have to be reconciled before a clam is to be expected.

  • “Us versus them”: Questions remain whether Sunnis and Shiites are truly killing each other in Iraq based on hatred of each other’s religious convictions or whether it’s just an “us versus them” mentality that has engulfed even the secular minded Shiites and Sunnis. One wonders about this as years of Saddam rule rarely saw hatred of such levels. Saddam did not oppress Shiites because of their religious beliefs – rather he eliminated anyone who challenged his power, including Sunnis. On the same token, he had Shiites and Christians both in his inner circle.

If this is true, then something will have to done at the government levels because the US vs. THEM mentality has caused more bloodshed in human history than any other reason.

What is at risk in Iraq and elsewhere?

 

More than the future of Iraq itself, a lot more is at stake including the following –

  • The Shiite Sunni divide though existed in the Islamic world has never reached this level before. At this rate of incitement being triggered by both parties, the Sunni Shiite (Shia) hatred is bound to spread throughout the Islamic world. Listening to stories in the media about Sunnis killing Shias and Shiite militias raping Sunni women are just the early sparks of this hatred. This has the potential of sparking local unrest within countries which has a Shiite population. Pakistan, India, Lebanon, Saudi-Arabia, Gulf countries and many others have a large Shiite population. Some Arab newspapers have already been reporting about an alleged scheme by Shiite militias to murder Sunni religious leaders. Shiite newspapers mention about similar allegations. Case in point – In November 2006, the Associated Press reported that “A previously unknown extremist group has warned that "Shiite death squads" acting under Iranian religious edicts are preparing to attack Sunni Muslims in Lebanon.” One wonders if it’s going to even get better, especially after clerics and some religious leaders within Iraq are promoting direct killings of the other sect.

  • The economies of the world are at stake. The US is pouring lots of money into the battles and reconstruction of Iraq. This is bound to have an impact on its economy sooner or later, if it has not already. Unrest in other countries will impact their local economies as well. Lebanon is an example where Shiite HezbAllah is determined to root out the current Sunni government. This tension has resulted in days of street agitation, and strikes that is crippling Lebanon’s economy.

  • With Iraq as the second largest source of oil in the world, what happens in Iraq also influences oil prices around the world. That in turn can seriously influence the economy of various countries of the world dependant on foreign oil.
What needs to be done?

 

Iraq will not stabilize until the various forces fighting within it give up their agendas, reconcile their agendas or are forced to relinquish their agendas for the sake of one national agenda. The fact that multiple parties’ interests are being pushed concurrently is helping shaping up the battles as well as the destruction of Iraq. One would think that the decision should be solely that of the people of Iraq. They are the ones who should really determine the future of their country. However, the US’s interests, the regional powers, the foreign fighters’ insurgency, the internal insurgency, and the Shiite majority – ALL have different agendas for Iraq. Forcing their agendas on Iraq is what is resulting in this bloodletting.

Some of the steps that can be taken to potentially bring some calm within Iraq include the following –

  • Regional powers must be engaged to help bring some calm to the region. The recently issued Baker Hamilton report recommended engaging the regional powers. This makes logical sense as regional powers and their influences are stirring up the heat in Iraq’s battlegrounds. For example, the US itself has discovered recently that Iran’s Quds force is purportedly actively involved in Iraq. As mentioned earlier, Iran would prefer a Shiite government in Iraq. Along the same lines, the regional Sunni countries see a Shiite government in Iraq as potentially providing certain kind of leadership to the Shiites living in the Sunni dominated countries. Therefore, direct or indirect, the influences of the regional powers are great in shaping the future of Iraq and only mutual discussions can shape those influences for the better.

  • The senior leadership of ALL the above parties must be engaged in constructive talks.

  • The senior leadership of all the parties must engage their respective clerics and spiritual leaders to reconvene and understand the ramifications of not stopping now.

As conditions continue to worsen, the US must engage the regional powers at a grand scale to help bring calm to the country whose population suffers numerous civil casualties daily. Use of force as the sole measure will only result in an equal and opposing force causing continued numerous civilian casualties.

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